Strategic Foresight

(This document is the result of my independent work. All sources of information used in the document have been duly acknowledged.)

"Take hold of your future or the future will take hold of you. "

--Patrick Dixon

Now, we have seen that the forecasting is not a flawless tool to peep into the future, so the very next question which arises in our mind is then how do we go about having a glimpse of the future? Also this is certainly inevitable to have a feel of the future when we are dealing with uncertainties every moment. So here comes to our rescue "Strategic Foresight". Foresight as the name suggests is forecasting itself but with an 'insight'. And as we know forecasting requires methodologies, the insight comes with the deep knowledge of the subject matter involved and hence providing the planning with a stronger basis. Hence, Strategic foresight provides the tools for early identification of emerging trends for analysis and interpretation and for developing a range of futures and identifying the preferred responses.

Strategic foresight is medium to long term trends and futures research in strategic management. It provides the important processes, methods and tools for trend-scanning, systematic analysis, interpretation and creation of the strategic perspectives. Carrying on the very basics of Strategic foresight we see that it arises from three premises:

• The future is not predictable
• The future is not predetermined
• Future outcomes can be influenced by our choices in the present.

We find that the strategic foresight gives the organizations a platform to create as well maintain a high quality view to look forward so as to explore the possible opportunities and threats before actually encountering them and hence be able to take more informed decisions in the present to be able to shape the future in our way. This would be helpful in navigating through this complex global environment which is changing so rapidly so that no trends may emerge to be captured by just forecasting method.

"The world is changing very fast. Big will not beat small anymore. It will be the fast beating the slow"

--Rupert Murdoch,

(Chairman and CEO News Corporation)

So now its not just about reacting or reacting fast but reacting faster as the relativity theory is getting more and more hold in the current era (i.e. the act of reacting faster is relative to the competitors). So the companies that use strategic foresight are basically trying to enhance their innovation reactivity, management of debacles and obviously the strategic decision making.s

Last but not the least a word of Caution - Strategic foresight can not forecast the future. It is, however, an effective tool to support strategic decision-making in the systematic generation and use of future-oriented, scenario-based knowledge in strategy and innovation. Future is a highway with varying lanes that may lead to unhappy endings also which are definitely difficult to accept. So to better equip ourselves with the lanes leading to unhappy endings (if it seems impossible to change the lane) strategic foresight is the tool.

References:

A project of the Chair for Innovation and Technology Management, Technische Universitat Berlin (n.d.), Strategic Foresight, Retrieved August 24, 2008, from http://www.strategic-foresight.eu/

Green, Daryl (2008), Strategic Foresight- Understanding the Negative Future- Nu Leadership Series, Retrieved August 25, 2008, from http://ezinearticles.com/?Strategic-Foresight---Understanding-the-Negative-Future---Nu-Leadership-Series&id=1340647

Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry, Australian government (n.d.), Strategic Foresight, Retrieved August 24, 2008, from http://www.daff.gov.au/animal-plant-health/animal/strategy